Silver in 2026: Industrial Demand, Solar, and the Supply Deficit

Silver is headed for a sixth straight deficit in 2026, per the Silver Institute, even as solar makers cut silver use per cell by 15% or more.

Key takeaways

The Silver Institute forecasts a 2026 silver market deficit of 46.3 million ounces, which would be a sixth straight annual deficit.
Photovoltaic silver demand is forecast to fall 19% in 2026 to 151.0 million ounces as solar cell makers use less silver per cell.
Coin and bar demand rose 14% in 2025 and is forecast to rise another 18% in 2026, to 257.6 million ounces.

Silver has run a supply deficit for five straight years, and the Silver Institute expects a sixth in 2026. The source of demand is shifting, though. Solar panel makers are cutting how much silver goes into each cell, and industrial demand is forecast to fall for a second year even as use in data centers and power grids grows.

The market in one table

The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026, researched by Metals Focus and released April 15, 2026, is the main reference. Figures are in millions of ounces.

Moz	2024	2025	2026 forecast
Mine production	823.6	846.6	844.1
Recycling	194.5	197.6	211.3
Total supply	1,019.6	1,090.4	1,066.4
Industrial demand	679.0	657.4	639.6
of which photovoltaics	197.5	186.6	151.0
Coin and net bar demand	190.9	217.7	257.6
Total demand	1,157.4	1,130.6	1,112.6
Market balance	-137.9	-40.3	-46.3

The deficit narrowed sharply in 2025, from 137.9 million ounces to 40.3 million. Supply rose 7%, helped by 44.7 million ounces of net producer hedging, while total demand fell 2%. The 2026 forecast is a slightly wider gap of 46.3 million ounces.

Investment is doing more of the work on the demand side. Coin and bar demand rose 14% in 2025 and is forecast to rise another 18% in 2026. Jewelry and silverware, which are sensitive to price, are forecast to fall 16% and 20%. The Silver Institute says falling inventories, a shift of metal into CME vaults, rising ETP holdings, and a surge in bar and coin buying produced an unprecedented liquidity squeeze in October 2025, which drove up lease rates and prices.

Solar: bigger installs, less silver

Photovoltaic silver demand rose from 118.1 million ounces in 2022 to 197.5 million in 2024. It then fell 6% in 2025 and is forecast to fall 19% in 2026.

The cause is price. The Survey says silver went from 8% to 10% of the cost of a solar cell at the start of 2025 to more than 20%. Cell makers, already squeezed by overcapacity, responded by using less:

Silver-coated copper pastes. By the fourth quarter of 2025, pastes with only 10% silver content were in high-volume production.
Finer printing and zero-busbar cell designs, which the Survey says can cut silver use by a further 10% to 20% compared with older designs.
Copper electroplating, still in pilot production, which could take silver loadings below 1 milligram per watt.

Silver loadings per unit fell more than 15% in 2025. Metals Focus expects a further 15% to 20% reduction in 2026, and expects mainstream cells to average below 5 milligrams per watt by 2027. It also notes that China installed a record 315 gigawatts of solar in 2025, but that installations there may post their first annual decline in two decades in 2026.

Where industrial demand is still growing

Outside solar, several uses are growing. The Survey points to AI infrastructure, power grid investment, and automotive electronics as sources of structural growth. Metals Focus expects data centers alone to account for more than 10% of electrical and electronics silver demand in 2027. Brazing alloys rose 1% in 2025 on automotive and aerospace demand.

So far that growth has not offset the solar decline. Electrical and electronics demand is forecast at 422.9 million ounces in 2026, down 6%. Total industrial demand is forecast down 3% for a second year.

The US added silver to its critical minerals list in November 2025, according to the Survey.

Supply: flat mines, more recycling

Most silver is a by-product of lead, zinc, copper, and gold mining. That limits how quickly supply responds to silver prices. Global mine output rose 3% in 2025 to 846.6 million ounces, mainly on higher by-product output from copper mines in Peru and a new mine in Russia. North American output fell to its lowest level in 10 years. For 2026, Metals Focus expects mine production to be flat.

Recycling is the flexible part of supply. It hit a 12-year high of 197.6 million ounces in 2025, driven mainly by selling of jewelry and silverware, according to the Silver Institute. Metals Focus forecasts a further 7% rise in 2026.

By the numbers

Solar’s shrinking share. Photovoltaics used 186.6 of 657.4 million ounces of industrial silver in 2025, or 28.4%. On the 2026 forecast, that falls to 151.0 of 639.6 million, or 23.6%.

Deficit size. The forecast 2026 deficit of 46.3 million ounces equals about 5.5% of forecast mine production of 844.1 million ounces. The Survey puts the cumulative deficit from 2021 through 2026 at 762.1 million ounces, drawn from above-ground stocks.

ETPs change the picture. In 2025, investors added 278.1 million ounces to silver exchange-traded products. Counting that as demand, the 2025 shortfall was 318.4 million ounces. For 2026, Metals Focus forecasts ETP inflows of 30.0 million ounces.

Price. The annual average London price rose 42% in 2025 to just over $40. Silver set an all-time high above $121 on January 29, 2026, per the Silver Institute. On September 16, 2026, it traded at $64.80 before falling to $62.60 after the Federal Reserve raised rates, per Investing News Network.

What to watch

The Silver Institute’s next market update, and whether Metals Focus revises the 2026 photovoltaic forecast of 151.0 million ounces.
Solar installation data from China, the largest market.
Adoption of copper-based cell technologies in commercial production.
Monthly silver ETP holdings, which moved the balance more than mine supply in 2025.
Second-half production reports from large copper and zinc miners, the main sources of by-product silver.

Sources

Frequently asked questions

Is there a silver supply deficit in 2026?

Yes, according to the Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026, researched by Metals Focus. It forecasts a 2026 deficit of 46.3 million ounces, slightly wider than the 40.3 million ounce gap in 2025. That would be a sixth straight annual deficit. The Survey puts the cumulative deficit from 2021 through 2026 at 762.1 million ounces, drawn from above-ground stocks.

Why is solar silver demand falling?

Silver went from 8% to 10% of the cost of a solar cell at the start of 2025 to more than 20%, so cell makers cut use. They adopted silver-coated copper pastes, finer printing and zero-busbar designs. Silver loadings per unit fell more than 15% in 2025, and Metals Focus expects a further 15% to 20% reduction in 2026.

What industrial uses of silver are growing?

The World Silver Survey 2026 points to AI infrastructure, power grid investment and automotive electronics as sources of structural growth. Metals Focus expects data centers alone to account for more than 10% of electrical and electronics silver demand in 2027. So far that growth has not offset the solar decline, and total industrial demand is forecast to fall 3% in 2026.