Copper and the AI Buildout: Data Centres, the Grid and the Supply Gap

Data centres use about 27 tonnes of copper per megawatt in one BHP case study. Here is how that sits against grid needs, IEA and ICSG forecasts and 2026 prices.

Key takeaways

BHP put data centre copper intensity at 27 tonnes per megawatt, based on a Microsoft data centre in Chicago that used 2,177 tonnes.
The IEA projects copper supply from existing and announced mines will fall about 25% short of requirements in 2035.
The ICSG’s April 2026 forecast projected refined copper surpluses of about 96,000 tonnes in 2026 and 377,000 tonnes in 2027.

Data centres are copper-heavy buildings, and they sit at the end of copper-heavy power grids. Published studies put the metal’s long-run supply gap in the millions of tonnes, even as the industry’s own study group expects a small refined surplus in 2026 and 2027. Both can be true at once, and the difference comes down to time horizon.

How much copper goes into a data centre

Copper carries power from the substation to the server rack. It is in busbars, cabling, transformers, switchgear, grounding and cooling systems. The most cited figure comes from BHP, which in January 2025 pointed to a Microsoft data centre in Chicago that used 2,177 tonnes of copper. BHP put the intensity at 27 tonnes of copper per megawatt of applied power.

That is one building, and designs vary. It is still the clearest published ratio, and it gives a sense of scale. BHP estimated data centres use around half a million tonnes of copper a year today and projected that could rise to around 3 million tonnes a year by 2050, a six-fold increase.

BloombergNEF reached a similar conclusion from a different angle. In a September 24, 2025 note, it said copper demand is forecast to outstrip supply by 6 million metric tons a year by 2035, with data centres named as one of the drivers.

The grid is the bigger copper story

A data centre only works if power reaches it. The International Energy Agency expects data centre electricity use to roughly double from 485 TWh in 2025 to about 950 TWh in 2030. That load needs new transmission lines, substations and transformers, all of which use copper or aluminium.

The IEA’s report Building the Future Transmission Grid laid out the pressure points:

About 1.5 million kilometres of new transmission lines were built worldwide over the past decade.
Global transmission investment was US$140 billion in 2023 and needs to exceed US$200 billion a year by the mid-2030s.
Cables now take two to three years to procure, and large power transformers up to four years. Lead times have almost doubled since 2021.
Cable prices have nearly doubled since 2019, and power transformer prices rose around 75%.

Data centres are one of several sources of grid demand. Electric vehicles, heat pumps, industrial electrification and renewable connections all compete for the same cable and transformer capacity.

The supply side: a gap later, a surplus now

Two credible bodies look at copper supply on different time frames.

The IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 projects copper supply from existing and announced mines will fall about 25% short of requirements in 2035. That is narrower than the roughly 30% gap in the prior year’s outlook, because more projects have advanced. The IEA also expects copper to add about 7 million tonnes of demand by 2040, the largest volume increase of any mineral it tracks.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) looks one to two years out. In its April 2026 forecast, it projected:

A refined copper surplus of about 96,000 tonnes in 2026, reversing an earlier forecast of a 150,000 tonne deficit.
A wider surplus of about 377,000 tonnes in 2027.
Mine production growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027.
Refined usage growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 2% in 2027.

The ICSG attributed the shift to slower demand growth and more secondary (recycled) production. It cut mine output expectations for Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia, and lowered its demand outlook because of uncertainty tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

The two views are consistent. Near term, recycling and weaker demand in some regions can cover the market. Longer term, new mines take many years to permit and build, and the IEA’s supply gap reflects that lag.

Copper prices this year, with dates

London Metal Exchange cash settlement prices and LME warehouse stocks, as compiled by Westmetall:

Date	LME cash (US$/tonne)	LME stocks (tonnes)
January 2, 2026	12,571	145,325
March 19, 2026 (2026 low to date)	11,826	n/a
August 17, 2026 (2026 high to date)	14,850	n/a
September 23, 2026	14,735	252,500

From January 2 to September 23, the cash price rose about 17%. Over the same period, LME stocks rose about 74%. Rising prices alongside rising exchange inventories is a reminder that price reflects more than physical tightness. Currency moves, investor positioning and trade policy all play a part.

By the numbers: data centres against the surplus

Using BHP’s 27 tonnes per megawatt ratio:

A 1 GW data centre campus would need about 27,000 tonnes of copper.
At the September 23, 2026 LME cash price of US$14,735 per tonne, that copper is worth about US$398 million.
The ICSG’s projected 2026 refined surplus of 96,000 tonnes equals the copper in about 3.6 GW of data centres at that ratio (96,000 / 27 = about 3,556 MW).
BHP’s estimate of half a million tonnes a year of data centre copper use is worth about US$7.4 billion at the same price.

The comparison is illustrative. The 27 tonne ratio comes from one facility, and the surplus is a forecast. It shows that a handful of gigawatt-scale campuses is enough to absorb a year’s projected refined surplus, while the grid build behind them adds more on top.

What to watch

The ICSG’s autumn forecast update and its monthly copper bulletin.
LME warehouse stock levels, published daily.
The IEA’s next critical minerals outlook and data centre electricity estimates.
Utility and grid operator transmission spending plans, including transformer and cable procurement.
Production reports from major copper producers in Chile, the DRC and Indonesia, the countries the ICSG flagged for lower output.

Sources

Frequently asked questions

How much copper does a data centre use?

The most cited figure comes from BHP, which in January 2025 pointed to a Microsoft data centre in Chicago that used 2,177 tonnes of copper, or 27 tonnes per megawatt of applied power. BHP estimated data centres use around half a million tonnes of copper a year and projected that could rise to around 3 million tonnes by 2050.

Is there a copper shortage or surplus in 2026?

Both views appear in published forecasts. The International Copper Study Group’s April 2026 forecast projected a refined surplus of about 96,000 tonnes in 2026 and 377,000 tonnes in 2027, citing slower demand growth and more recycling. The IEA projects supply from existing and announced mines will fall about 25% short of requirements in 2035. The difference is time horizon.

Why does the power grid need so much copper?

New data centre load needs transmission lines, substations and transformers, which use copper or aluminium. The IEA says global transmission investment was US$140 billion in 2023 and needs to exceed US$200 billion a year by the mid-2030s. Cable lead times are two to three years and large power transformers take up to four years.