What Drove Gold’s Move From July to September 2026

Gold was flat in July, rose 13.3% in August on ETF and futures buying and a softer dollar, then cooled after the Fed hiked on Sept 16.

Key takeaways

Gold returned 0.0% in July 2026, then rose 13.3% in August to US$4,563 on August 31, per the World Gold Council.
Global gold ETFs added US$18 billion and 121 tonnes in August 2026, the second largest monthly inflow by value on record.
Gold fell 2.43% after the Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026.

Gold went nowhere in July, jumped 13.3% in August, then gave back part of that gain in September after the Federal Reserve raised rates. The August move came from money flowing into gold ETFs and futures, a softer US dollar, and worry about US debt after the Treasury stepped into the bond market. Central banks kept buying in the background, but they were not the swing factor.

The price path, by date

The World Gold Council (WGC) reports the LBMA Gold Price PM, the daily benchmark used by most of the industry. Its figures anchor the table below. The September figures come from market reports and are intraday or futures prices, so they do not line up exactly with the benchmark.

Date (2026)	Gold price (US$/oz)	What happened
Jan 29	5,405	Record high on the LBMA PM benchmark (WGC)
Jul 31	4,027	July return 0.0%; down 7.8% for the year (WGC)
Aug 19	n/a	US Treasury doubles long-dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation, effective Sept 9
Aug 31	4,563	August return 13.3%; up 4.5% for the year (WGC)
Sep 16	about 4,353, then 4,247.86	Fed raises its target range to 3.75% to 4.00%; gold falls 2.43% after the decision (INN)
Sep 22	4,382	December gold futures open (Yahoo Finance)

The WGC called August the third highest monthly return in 25 years, narrowly short of the 14% gain in January 2026. July was flat in US dollar terms. Gold tested $4,000 several times that month without breaking lower.

What drove August, and what did not

The WGC runs a regression model on monthly gold returns that splits them into momentum, opportunity cost, risk, and economic expansion factors. For August, it credited momentum first, led by ETF buying, followed by a weaker US dollar.

ETF flows. Global gold ETFs added US$18 billion in August, the second largest monthly inflow by value on record. Holdings rose 121 tonnes to 4,189 tonnes, a record, and assets under management rose 16% to US$615 billion. European funds took in US$7.9 billion, their strongest month on record. North American funds took in US$7.7 billion, and roughly US$4 billion of that arrived in the week of August 17.

Futures. COMEX net managed money positions rose by 97 tonnes (US$13 billion) in August. The “other reportable” category, which the WGC says likely reflects trend-following funds, rose by 115 tonnes (US$17 billion).

The dollar. The US Dollar Index fell 0.5% in August, its second straight monthly decline, according to Nasdaq’s month-end review. A softer dollar lowers the price of gold for buyers holding other currencies.

Bond market stress and the Treasury. Long-term US yields kept climbing. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% in August, its highest level since 2007. On August 19, the Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its buybacks of 10-year to 30-year bonds. The Treasury described the move as liquidity support. The WGC noted that some investors read it as an attempt to hold yields down, and it linked the ETF buying to worries about deficits and the value of the dollar. It also pointed to US intervention to support the Japanese yen at the end of July as an early trigger.

Rising yields normally work against gold because gold pays no interest. In August that effect was outweighed by the flows above.

Where central banks fit

Central bank buying continued through the period, at a steady pace rather than a surge.

Central banks reported net purchases of 23 tonnes in July, led by China (20 tonnes) and Poland (8 tonnes), according to WGC data compiled from IMF and central bank reports.
The People’s Bank of China reported a 20.2 tonne addition in August, its largest monthly increase since October 2023 and its 22nd straight month of buying. Its holdings reached 2,387 tonnes.
Reported central bank purchases totalled about 130 tonnes for the year to July, against roughly 160 tonnes in the same period of 2025.

Twenty tonnes a month is a firm floor under demand. It is small next to the 121 tonnes that ETFs added in August alone.

Why September cooled

The WGC’s China update said gold’s momentum weakened in early September as hawkish comments from the Fed chair and strong US jobs data revived bets on a rate hike. On September 16 the hike arrived. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase in more than three years. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the personal consumption expenditures price index was running at 3.7% a year. Fed officials’ median projection put the funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026.

Gold traded near $4,353 before the announcement and fell to $4,247.86 by 3:15 p.m. EDT, per Investing News Network. By September 22, December futures opened at $4,382. That is below the August month-end benchmark but above where gold spent July.

By the numbers

Two checks on the figures above.

ETF tonnes to dollars. One tonne is 32,150.7 troy ounces. The 121 tonnes ETFs added in August equal about 3.89 million ounces. At the August 31 price of $4,563, that is about $17.8 billion, which matches the WGC’s reported US$18 billion inflow.

Distance from the record. From $4,027 on July 31 to $4,563 on August 31 is a gain of 13.3%. Even after that, the August 31 price sat 15.6% below the January 29 record of $5,405. The August rally erased the year’s loss, but only part of the drop from the January peak.

What to watch

The next Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for October 27 and 28.
The WGC’s September gold ETF flow report, published early each month.
The People’s Bank of China’s reserve data for September, released in early October.
The US Treasury’s next Quarterly Refunding on November 4, when it says it will give more detail on future buyback sizes.
The WGC’s Gold Demand Trends report for the third quarter, which will put numbers on the full July to September period.

Sources

Frequently asked questions

Why did gold go up in August 2026?

The World Gold Council credited momentum first, led by gold ETF buying, followed by a weaker US dollar. Global gold ETFs added US$18 billion in August 2026, COMEX managed money positions rose 97 tonnes, and the US Dollar Index fell 0.5%. Worry about US debt after the Treasury expanded long-dated bond buybacks on August 19 also played a part.

Why did gold fall in September 2026?

Gold’s momentum weakened in early September 2026 as hawkish Fed comments and strong US jobs data revived bets on a rate hike. On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase in more than three years. Gold fell from about US$4,353 to US$4,247.86 after the decision, per Investing News Network.

Did central banks drive gold’s rally in August 2026?

No. Central banks kept buying at a steady pace, but they were not the swing factor. They reported net purchases of 23 tonnes in July 2026, and China reported a 20.2 tonne addition in August. That is small next to the 121 tonnes that gold ETFs added in August alone, according to World Gold Council data.