Gold and AI: Can a Tech Boom and a Safe-Haven Metal Rally Together?

A dated look at gold, the Nasdaq and real yields in 2026: when they moved together, when they split, and the mechanisms behind each.

Key takeaways

Gold fell 14.70% in Q2 2026, per the LBMA, while the Nasdaq Composite rose about 21.4% over the same quarter.
From January 29 to March 23, 2026, gold fell about 22.5% and the Nasdaq about 7.3%, falling in the same window.
The US 10-year real yield rose about 83 basis points, from 1.93% to 2.76%, between December 31, 2025 and September 23, 2026.

In 2026, gold and technology stocks have spent more time moving in opposite directions than together. Gold set a record on January 29 and fell sharply in the second quarter, while the Nasdaq Composite bottomed in late March and reached its highest close of the year in September. Looking at the dated data shows which forces pushed each asset, and why they sometimes line up.

The 2026 record, quarter by quarter

Gold figures are LBMA Gold Prices from the LBMA’s quarterly market reports, except September 23, which is a spot price from USAGOLD. Nasdaq and Treasury yields are from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).

Date	Gold (US$/oz)	Nasdaq Composite	10-year Treasury yield	10-year real yield (TIPS)
December 31, 2025	n/a	23,241.99	4.18%	1.93%
January 29, 2026	5,501.70 (record, AM)	23,685.12	4.24%	1.89%
March 23, 2026	4,263.55 (Q1 low, AM)	21,946.76	4.34%	2.01%
March 31, 2026	4,608.35 (PM)	21,590.63	4.30%	2.00%
June 30, 2026	4,026.05 (PM)	26,213.72	4.44%	2.20%
September 23, 2026	4,304.11 (spot)	26,936.04	5.11%	2.76%

The Nasdaq’s 2026 closing low on FRED was 20,794.64 on March 30, and its highest 2026 close was 27,244.28 on September 22.

By the numbers

Q1: gold rose 5.87% for the quarter, per the LBMA. The Nasdaq fell about 7.1% (23,241.99 to 21,590.63).
Record to March low: from January 29 to March 23, gold fell about 22.5% and the Nasdaq about 7.3%. Both fell in the same window.
Q2: gold fell 14.70%, per the LBMA. The Nasdaq rose about 21.4% (21,590.63 to 26,213.72).
June 30 to September 23: gold rose about 6.9% and the Nasdaq about 2.8%. This compares an LBMA auction price with a spot price, so treat the gold figure as approximate.
Year to date to September 23: the Nasdaq was up about 15.9%. Gold at US$4,304 spot was about 22% below its January 29 record.
Rates: the 10-year real yield rose from 1.93% to 2.76%, about 83 basis points, between December 31 and September 23.

So the answer to the headline question, for 2026 so far, is yes, sometimes. The two assets rose together from late June to late September and fell together from late January to late March. In the second quarter they split hard.

What moved gold

The LBMA’s quarterly reports tie gold’s path to a few specific events.

January: safe-haven buying linked to events in Venezuela and tensions with Iran, alongside a weaker US dollar, carried gold to its record.
Late February and March: the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran initially supported prices, then triggered margin calls. The LBMA noted that gold’s high liquidity made it “the first point of call” for traders raising cash.
Second quarter: with commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, Brent crude reached US$114.5 on May 4, according to the LBMA. That raised inflation fears and talk of the Federal Reserve holding or raising rates. Because gold pays no interest, higher expected rates weighed on it.

The Fed did raise rates. On September 16, 2026, the FOMC lifted the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%, stating that “inflation remains elevated.”

The World Gold Council’s Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends, published July 30, shows the split in buyers:

Central banks bought 289 tonnes.
Gold ETFs saw outflows of 45 tonnes.
Bar and coin demand was 307 tonnes, steady year over year.
Jewellery fell to 278 tonnes, its lowest quarterly volume since the pandemic.

The LBMA gold price averaged US$4,506.29 in Q2, 8% below the Q1 record average and 37% above Q2 2025.

What moved tech stocks

Tech equities fell into late March during the same conflict, then rebounded strongly in the second quarter, when the Nasdaq gained about 21%. It reached its highest close of the year, 27,244.28, on September 22. Tech valuations are sensitive to rates too, since higher yields reduce the present value of future earnings. Even so, the index rose through a period when the 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.44% at the end of June to 5.11% on September 23. Over that stretch, the rate effect did not dominate the index’s direction.

The mechanisms, without the forecast

There are four main channels linking the two assets:

Real yields. Higher real yields raise the cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold, and raise the discount rate on growth stocks. This tends to push both down together.
Liquidity shocks. In a sharp selloff, investors sell what they can. Gold’s liquidity makes it a source of cash, which is what the LBMA described in March.
Different buyers. Central banks, which bought 289 tonnes in Q2, buy for reserve reasons that have little to do with tech stock sentiment. That can support gold while equity investors rotate.
Direct AI demand for gold. This exists but is small. Technology used 80 tonnes of gold in Q2, and the WGC said AI-related demand offset weakness in consumer electronics. That is about 6.3% of the quarter’s 1,269 tonnes of total demand.

When a safe-haven event hits and rates are falling, gold and tech can diverge. When liquidity is plentiful and the dollar is weak, both can rise. When real yields jump, both face pressure. 2026 has shown all three.

What to watch

The next FOMC decisions, including the December 2026 meeting, and the Fed’s statements on inflation.
US 10-year Treasury and TIPS yields, published daily on FRED.
The World Gold Council’s Q3 2026 Gold Demand Trends report, including central bank and ETF flows.
The LBMA’s Q3 2026 precious metals market report.
Quarterly earnings and capital spending guidance from the largest AI and chip companies.
Brent crude and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Sources

Frequently asked questions

Do gold and tech stocks move together?

Sometimes. In 2026, gold and the Nasdaq Composite fell together from late January to late March, and rose together from late June to late September. In the second quarter they split hard: gold fell 14.70%, per the LBMA, while the Nasdaq rose about 21.4%. The relationship depended on real yields, liquidity and who was buying.

Why did gold fall in the second quarter of 2026?

Gold fell 14.70% in Q2 2026, per the LBMA. With commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, Brent crude reached US$114.5 on May 4, raising inflation fears and talk of the Federal Reserve holding or raising rates. Because gold pays no interest, higher expected rates weighed on it. Gold ETFs also saw outflows of 45 tonnes in the quarter.

How much gold does AI technology use?

Direct AI demand for gold exists but is small. Technology used 80 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, and the World Gold Council said AI-related demand offset weakness in consumer electronics. That was about 6.3% of the quarter’s 1,269 tonnes of total gold demand, according to the WGC’s Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends report.