AI Data Centres and Power Demand: What It Means for Uranium

The IEA expects data centre power use to roughly double by 2030. Here is how tech company nuclear deals translate, or do not, into uranium demand.

Key takeaways

The IEA projects data centre electricity use rising from 485 TWh in 2025 to about 950 TWh in 2030.
A large 1,000 MWe reactor needs about 200 tonnes of U3O8 a year, about 441,000 lb, per the World Nuclear Association.
The long-term uranium price was US$96.50/lb at August 2026 month-end, up from US$80.00 in March 2025, per Cameco.

Data centres used about 485 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2025, and the International Energy Agency expects that to roughly double by 2030. Tech companies have responded by signing long-term contracts with nuclear plants. For uranium, the question is how much of that contracting turns into new reactor fuel demand, and how fast.

What the IEA says about data centre power

The IEA’s April 2025 report Energy and AI put global data centre electricity use at 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of world electricity consumption. The United States accounted for 45% of that, China 25% and Europe 15%.

A follow-up report, Key Questions on Energy and AI, published April 16, 2026, updated the numbers:

Data centre electricity demand grew 17% in 2025.
Consumption from AI-focused data centres grew about 50% in 2025.
The IEA projects total data centre use rising from 485 TWh in 2025 to about 950 TWh in 2030.

In the United States, the IEA expects data centres to account for nearly half of electricity demand growth through 2030. Its Electricity 2026 report also noted that global nuclear generation set a record in 2025.

The IEA does not expect nuclear to carry most of the new load. In the 2025 report, renewables supply the largest share of growth in data centre power through 2035, with natural gas and nuclear each contributing a similar, smaller amount. Small modular reactors enter its outlook around 2030.

What tech companies have actually signed

The public record shows a mix of deals. Some restart or extend existing reactors. Others fund reactors that do not exist yet. A June 2026 review by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace listed the main agreements:

Buyer	Counterparty	Size	Type	Timing
Microsoft	Constellation (Crane, formerly Three Mile Island Unit 1)	835 MW	Restart of a closed reactor, 20-year PPA signed September 2024	Restart expected 2027
Amazon	Talen Energy (Susquehanna)	1.9 GW	Existing plant, announced June 2025	Ramp to full volume by 2032
Alphabet	Kairos Power, with TVA	50 MW initial, 500 MW target	New advanced reactors	Hermes 2 expected 2030
Amazon	X-energy	320 MW initial, up to 1 GW	New small modular reactors	Construction to begin by 2030
Meta	TerraPower and Oklo	2.8 GW and 1.2 GW	New advanced reactors, announced early 2026	As early as 2032 to 2035

Carnegie estimated that if every hyperscaler-backed nuclear project came to fruition, the combined output would be roughly 102 TWh per year. It noted that new reactors take ten to fifteen years from initial planning to commissioning.

Why the deal type matters for uranium

A contract to buy power from a reactor that is already running does not add a pound of uranium demand. The reactor was already loading fuel. The electricity simply goes to a different customer.

Uranium demand rises when reactor capacity rises. That happens four ways: restarts of closed units, power uprates, life extensions that keep reactors from retiring, and new builds. Of the deals above, the Crane restart adds fuel demand around 2027. The advanced reactor agreements add demand only if and when those units are built and loaded, which on the companies’ own timelines is the 2030s.

That is why the headline gigawatts in tech nuclear deals overstate near-term uranium demand. The fuel effect is real but back-weighted.

The math: fuel for one gigawatt

The World Nuclear Association says about 200 tonnes of uranium oxide concentrate (U3O8) keeps a large 1,000 MWe reactor running for a year.

200 tonnes x 2,204.62 lb per tonne = about 441,000 lb of U3O8 per year.
At Cameco’s August 2026 month-end spot price of US$89.68/lb, that is about US$39.5 million of uranium per year.
At the August 2026 long-term price of US$96.50/lb, about US$42.6 million.

Apply that to the Crane restart. At 835 MW, the same ratio gives about 167 tonnes of U3O8, or roughly 368,000 lb a year.

Now a stress test. The IEA projects data centre demand rising by about 465 TWh between 2025 and 2030. One gigawatt of nuclear running 90% of the hours in a year produces about 7.9 TWh. If, hypothetically, all 465 TWh came from new nuclear, it would take about 59 GW of reactors and about 11,800 tonnes of U3O8 a year, or roughly 26 million lb. The IEA does not expect this. Renewables and gas carry most of the growth in its outlook. The figure is an upper bound that shows the scale, not a forecast.

Uranium prices, with dates

Cameco publishes industry average prices calculated from month-end figures reported by UxC and TradeTech. Selected points, in US dollars per pound of U3O8:

Month-end	Spot	Long-term
March 2025	$64.23	$80.00
September 2025	$82.63	$83.00
December 2025	$81.55	$86.50
January 2026	$94.28	$89.00
May 2026	$84.18	$94.00
August 2026	$89.68	$96.50

Two things stand out. The long-term price, which is what utilities pay in multi-year contracts, rose in almost every month from mid-2025 to August 2026. The spot price moved around more, peaking at the January 2026 month-end and staying in the mid-$80s through spring. Most reactor fuel is bought under long-term contracts, so the long-term indicator is the better read on utility demand.

Where Cameco fits

Cameco is one of the largest listed uranium producers. From its public filings and releases:

Its Canadian operations, Cigar Lake and McArthur River/Key Lake, produced 10.1 million lb of U3O8 in the first half of 2026, down 5% from a year earlier, according to World Nuclear News on August 4, 2026. A May bridge collapse in Saskatchewan temporarily halted Key Lake production.
In its second quarter results on July 31, 2026, Cameco kept its production outlook unchanged and said its long-term contract portfolio averages over 28 million lb of U3O8 a year for the next five years.
On October 28, 2025, Cameco, Brookfield and the US government announced a partnership under which at least US$80 billion of new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors would be built in the United States. Cameco and Brookfield acquired Westinghouse together in a deal announced in 2022.

For comparison, Kazatomprom, the largest producer, reiterated 2026 guidance of 27,500 to 29,000 tonnes of uranium on a 100% basis.

What to watch

Cameco’s third quarter results and any change to its 2026 production outlook.
Cameco’s monthly posting of UxC and TradeTech month-end spot and long-term prices.
Progress on the Crane restart, which is scheduled for 2027.
Construction permits and licence applications for the advanced reactors named in tech company agreements.
The IEA’s next data centre electricity estimates and its annual World Energy Outlook.
Any firm orders under the US government and Westinghouse AP1000 program.

Sources

Frequently asked questions

How much electricity do AI data centres use?

The IEA put global data centre electricity use at 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of world electricity consumption. In an April 2026 report it said data centre demand grew 17% in 2025, reaching 485 TWh, and projected about 950 TWh in 2030. Consumption from AI-focused data centres grew about 50% in 2025.

Do tech company nuclear deals increase uranium demand?

Only some do. A contract to buy power from a reactor already running does not add uranium demand, because that reactor was already loading fuel. Demand rises with restarts of closed units, power uprates, life extensions and new builds. Microsoft’s Crane restart adds fuel demand around 2027, while advanced reactor deals add demand only if and when those units are built.

How much uranium does a nuclear reactor use per year?

The World Nuclear Association says about 200 tonnes of uranium oxide concentrate, U3O8, keeps a large 1,000 MWe reactor running for a year. That is about 441,000 lb. At Cameco’s August 2026 month-end spot price of US$89.68/lb, that is about US$39.5 million of uranium a year, or about US$42.6 million at the long-term price.