Bank of Canada Rate Decisions in 2026 and What They Mean for Small Caps

The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% at all six 2026 decisions. A dated table of each call, why the Bank held, and the remaining announcement dates.

Key takeaways

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% at all six 2026 decisions, from January 28 to September 2, 2026.
The last change was a quarter-point cut on October 29, 2025, and Canadian bank prime has stayed at 4.45% since.
The next announcements are October 28, 2026, with a new Monetary Policy Report, and December 9, 2026.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% at all six of its 2026 decisions so far. The last change was a quarter-point cut on October 29, 2025. For small-cap companies that fund themselves through equity and short-term credit, the story of 2026 is a flat rate with headline inflation near 3% and a new round of tariffs keeping the Bank on hold.

Every 2026 decision so far

The Bank sets its target for the overnight rate on eight fixed dates a year. Here is each 2026 announcement, with the inflation figure the Bank cited in its own press release.

Date	Policy rate	Change	What the Bank cited
January 28, 2026	2.25%	Hold	CPI 2.4% in December; 2026 growth projected at 1.1%
March 18, 2026	2.25%	Hold	CPI 1.8% in February; Q4 2025 GDP down 0.6%; unemployment 6.7%
April 29, 2026	2.25%	Hold	CPI 2.4% in March on higher gasoline; 2026 growth projected at 1.2%
June 10, 2026	2.25%	Hold	CPI 2.8% in April; core inflation around 2%; Q1 GDP down 0.1%
July 15, 2026	2.25%	Hold	CPI 3.2% in May; 2026 growth projected at 0.7%
September 2, 2026	2.25%	Hold	CPI near 3%; 2.2% excluding gasoline in July; Q2 GDP growth of 3.3%

With each hold, the Bank Rate stayed at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The Bank’s last two moves were cuts of 25 basis points each, on September 17, 2025 (to 2.50%) and October 29, 2025 (to 2.25%). After the October cut, the Bank said it saw the rate “at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period.”

How 2026 compares with 2025

The contrast with 2025 is the point. The rate sat at 2.75% through the April 16, June 4 and July 30, 2025 decisions. The Bank then cut twice in a row, in September and October, taking the rate to 2.25%, the level it has held since.

The Bank’s own projections have moved around this year. In January it projected 2026 growth of 1.1% and 2027 growth of 1.5%. In April the 2026 figure was 1.2%. By July, after two weak quarters, it was 0.7% for 2026, with 1.8% a year expected in 2027 and 2028. On inflation, the July statement said the Bank expects CPI to ease gradually and return to around 2% in early 2027.

The labour market has been soft. Unemployment was 6.7% at the March decision and 6.4% in July, and the Bank said in September that demand for labour remains subdued.

Why the Bank has not moved

The 2026 record shows two forces pulling in opposite directions.

Inflation moved up on energy. Headline CPI climbed from 1.8% in February to 3.2% in May. The Bank tied most of that to gasoline. Statistics Canada reported on September 14 that CPI was 3.0% in August, the same as July, with gasoline up 22.8% from a year earlier. Excluding gasoline, prices rose 2.4% in August, up from 2.2% in July.

Growth was weak, then rebounded. GDP fell 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026, then grew 3.3% in the second quarter, according to the Bank’s September statement. In July the Bank’s forecast had 2026 growth at just 0.7%.

Tariffs returned. The September statement pointed to “new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures” and said “the upside risks to inflation have increased, while new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain.” The Governing Council’s summary of deliberations, released September 16, said the new U.S. tariffs cover roughly 5% of Canadian exports and that the direct impact on the whole economy would likely be modest. The same summary said heightened trade uncertainty would weigh on confidence. The decision to hold was unanimous.

What a flat rate means for small caps

Small-cap resource and technology companies are sensitive to rates in a few specific ways.

Borrowing costs. Commercial lenders price floating-rate credit off prime. Canadian bank prime moved to 4.45% after the October 2025 cut and has stayed there through the 2026 holds.
Discount rates. Mining studies value projects by discounting future cash flow. Lower risk-free rates reduce one input to that discount rate, though the rates used in published studies tend to change slowly.
Risk appetite. Rate expectations affect how much capital flows toward earlier-stage companies. That effect is hard to isolate and moves with many other variables.
Currency. Rate gaps between Canada and the U.S. influence the exchange rate, which matters for any company selling in U.S. dollars and paying costs in Canadian dollars.

A year of holds removes one variable from financing plans. It also means borrowers have had no further relief since late 2025.

The math: what 50 basis points did to a credit line

The policy rate was 2.75% on April 16, 2025, and 2.25% after October 29, 2025. That is a 0.50 percentage point decline.

Take a hypothetical company with a C$1,000,000 floating-rate credit line priced at prime. If prime moved one for one with the policy rate, a 0.50 point drop cuts annual interest by C$1,000,000 x 0.005 = C$5,000. At today’s prime of 4.45%, the same line costs C$44,500 a year in interest before any lender spread.

For a producer with tens of millions in floating debt, that scales directly. For an explorer with no debt, the effect runs through equity markets and is much harder to measure.

What to watch

October 28, 2026: next rate announcement, with a new Monetary Policy Report and updated growth and inflation projections.
December 9, 2026: final scheduled announcement of the year.
2027 dates already published: January 27 (with MPR), March 3, April 28 (with MPR), June 2, July 21 (with MPR), September 8, October 27 (with MPR) and December 8.
September CPI from Statistics Canada, released before the October decision. The Bank’s deliberations flagged whether high gasoline prices pass through to other prices.
Tariff developments on Canadian exports and Canada’s counter-tariffs, which the Bank named as the main growth risk in September.

Sources

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bank of Canada interest rate in 2026?

The Bank of Canada’s policy rate has been 2.25% throughout 2026, held at all six decisions from January 28 to September 2. The last change was a 25 basis point cut on October 29, 2025. With each hold, the Bank Rate stayed at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Canadian bank prime has been 4.45%.

Why has the Bank of Canada held rates in 2026?

Two forces pulled in opposite directions. Headline inflation rose from 1.8% in February to 3.2% in May, mostly on gasoline, while GDP fell in late 2025 and early 2026 before growing 3.3% in the second quarter. In September the Bank said new US tariffs raised upside inflation risks and made growth prospects more uncertain. The September decision was unanimous.

When is the next Bank of Canada rate announcement?

The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is October 28, 2026, with a new Monetary Policy Report and updated growth and inflation projections. The final scheduled announcement of 2026 is December 9. Published 2027 dates are January 27, March 3, April 28, June 2, July 21, September 8, October 27 and December 8.